 Kickstart the Year: Setting Annual Giving Projections for SuccessWhen my boss at The University of Southern Mississippi Foundation asked me to develop my goal for next year’s annual fund, I leaned into my expertise with spreadsheets and data. Piece by piece, I built a realistic projection for what we could raise through direct mail, email marketing, and our phonathon. Confident in the numbers, I presented them to him, and he was skeptical because the figure was three times more than the previous decade of annual results. He suggested revising the estimate to a modest 10% increase, but I firmly stood by my projections, stating they were my low-end projections. He challenged me by saying, “If you hit these numbers, I’ll let you put a pie in my face.” We formalized the bet with a signed contract displayed in the office, which became a motivator for the team. As the year unfolded, the energy around this goal grew. Even as we processed triple the usual number of gifts, everyone rallied around the challenge. My projections were so accurate that our phonathon came within $100 of my estimates, proving the strategy worked. At a faculty and staff event marking the year’s end, we celebrated with the promised pie-in-the-face moment. My boss, albeit wearing protective gear, took the pie as I reveled in knowing that meticulous planning and confidence in my expertise led to such a monumental achievement.  As we enter a new year, the promise of fresh opportunities is balanced by the practical need to set realistic projections. For nonprofit professionals, this is a pivotal step in crafting a fundraising strategy that not only meets but exceeds organizational goals. Even if you are on a July - June fiscal year, now is the time to planning and projecting because you will likely need to lobby for budget resources in February or March for the upcoming new fiscal/academic year. But let’s start with some clarity: a goal is a desired end state – what you hope to achieve. A projection, however, is an educated calculation based on data and trends – a tool to guide your way. While these terms are related, their distinctions are critical. In healthy organizations, projections should drive goal setting. Yet, many of us have faced the challenge of working under arbitrary or unrealistic goals set without a solid foundation in data. So, how do you ensure your projections are both reliable and actionable? Let’s dive into how to create, use, and leverage them to empower your program and set yourself up for success. Why Projections MatteR Whether your organization has given you a set goal or you have the freedom to build it, projections are indispensable. Even if the target feels unattainable, projections are worth your time because they:
Building Your ProjectionS Predictive modeling – despite its technical-sounding name – is something you can absolutely handle. It’s essentially using statistics to make educated guesses about future outcomes. Here’s how to build your projections step by step: Tools and Inputs You’ll Need
 You’ll building each segment into your spreadsheet like you’re building a house: brick by brick, cell by cell. This takes a long time but it is the essence of predictive modeling. It must be detailed to be relevant. Once done, you’ll have a powerful tool for the entire year. So, let’s take an example or two (see the chart above): Let’s say you want to know how your fall direct mail will likely perform. You estimate from past results and database reports that you have 1,156 lybunts (last year's donors) and 567 sybunts (donors who gave 3-5 years ago) to send a letter to this fall. Looking at past years, you see that your response rate has been between 8-10% for lybunts and 4-7% for sybunts. You feel like playing it safe so you put in the low-end values. Using formulas, the information you have put in so far tells you that you can expect 92 gifts from the lybunts and 24 from the sybunts. Based on past reports and your best guesses, you put in $135 for a lybunt average gift and $87 for sybunts. This makes your likely total dollars $12,484 from the lybunts and $2,096 from the sybunts. Now, assuming those were your only two segments for fall direct mail, you can then total up the letters, gifts and dollars and you know what to expect. Your models might include just one vehicle (direct mail, phonathon, email solicitations, etc.) or it might include everything your shop plans to bring in. Your model might have hundreds of segments or be exceedingly simple. The point is not to be baroque but specific enough to be valid predictions of results. Using Projections DynamicallY A projection isn’t a static document – it’s a living tool. Throughout the year, compare Projections vs. Actuals (P v. A) to track your progress and refine your strategy. Here’s how:
Empower Yourself as the ExperT The beauty of this process is its empowerment. By building and working with your projections, you position yourself as the expert who deeply understands your program’s performance and potential. Predictive modeling isn’t just about numbers – it’s about creating a roadmap to success and adapting dynamically to new challenges and opportunities. So this year, ditch the fear around terms like "predictive modeling" and “projections.” Embrace the power they bring. With your knowledge of your program, you are the best person to set and adapt projections, ensuring your goals are achievable and your strategies are on point. Let’s make this year the one where we not only meet our goals but exceed them – one data-driven step at a time. Now it’s your turn: What’s your process for setting projections? Share your thoughts and experiences below! Cheers!  PS - I hope you’ll continue the conversation by subscribing to Real Deal Fundraising. When you subscribe, you’ll get my e-newsletter, which includes the best articles on fundraising, productivity and cool stuff every week. The whole thing is weekly curated awesomeness as well as freebies like webinars, instructional videos, and whatever else I can put together to be helpful to you! If you liked this post, you may also like these:
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Jessica Cloud, CFREI've been called the Tasmanian Devil of fundraising and I'm here to talk shop with you. Archives
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